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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the largest improvement receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest upset.

But the latest field is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and longtime underperformers rising in unison. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a normal season!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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